Risk Management, Construction Risk Management
Project Risk ManagementRisk Management, Decision and Risk Analysis (DRA)
A decision in business caries risk, period. The best business decisions are made by people that are the most informed. Risk Analysis, or Decision and Risk Analysis (D&RA), is a great tool for complex decisions where there is/are one or more alternatives. When decisions can literally cost millions of dollars over a relatively short time period of time, or tens of millions over the life of a decision, a proper and professional risk analysis is a much needed method to make informed decisions.
D&RA Example – Summary of Financial Projections
In the graph above, a simple comparison is shown for the decision to pursue one product (product “A”) over another (product “B”). One can quickly see from the graph that the decision to pursue product “B” would, in all likely-hood, yield over $50 million in net present value over a ten year period. Yes indeed, it is NECE$$ARY to be informed on decisions that can yield this type of order of magnitude benefit!
It is of note, that while the output of such a D&RA assessment is clean and illustrative, the input and process can be extremely complex with a mix of art, science, finance, engineering prowess, and people skills. It is absolutely necessary to dig up all the necessary information of a given operation or business endeavor to perform a proper D&RA.
Financial & Cash Flow Modeling
The use of Financial modeling to understand Net Present Value (NPV), Net Present Cost (NPC), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Return on Investment (ROI) is a very powerful tool for clients. As you can see in the above “Cash Flow Modeling Graph,” business growth modeling can provide substantial value to a business during decision making phases of a given endeavor. Without this type of modeling, it is extremely difficult to anticipate business and project risk and to make decisions effectively. This type of modeling incorporates, taxes and depreciation, lost revenues, increased revenues, maintenance and operations costs, capital expenditure, cost of capital, opportunity losses and whatever else is needed to make an informed decision.
Risk Management Summary
Decision and Risk Analysis (D&RA) is a powerful tool used to compare and project more the business pathway so one can optimize return on investment, cash flow and capital expenditures, and minimizing risk. Mr. Pollock is a subject matter expert, and has performed these analyses in manufacturing, utilities, project engineering, legal cases, product evaluation and selection, facilities management, and construction risk venues.